![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
Weakness, of military or of will, invites attack.
2014-Тра-27, Вівторок 01:08Civilization Watch
First appeared in print in The The Rhino Times, Greensboro, NC
By Orson Scott Card May 1, 2014
Witnessing the Great War
...
http://www.ornery.org/essays/warwatch/2014-05-01-1.html
Naked aggression, if it is not resisted, will be repeated. Learning the wrong lesson from World War I, Britain tried to give in to Hitler's "legitimate" claims -- which are strangely identical to Putin's claim to be protecting Russian nationals in Ukraine and the Baltic states. But this did not avert war, it merely led Hitler to believe that he would easily win his war against a cowardly, unprepared West.
Which he did. He overwhelmed and occupied France, and left Britain to huddle on its island, incapable of mounting any serious offensive against German-held territory for four years.
Today, Putin is obviously playing from Hitler's playbook. Hitler got his agents to create faked-up "incidents" in which pro-German citizens of Austria and Czechoslovakia provoked their governments to act against them, thus allowing Hitler to claim that he needed to seize German-majority territories in order to "protect" German nationals.
Putin is doing exactly the same thing in Ukraine, and is prepared to play the tape again in Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia. And, like Hitler, Putin is facing a west led by stupid "peace-loving" leaders who think that by disarming themselves, they will somehow encourage imperialists like Putin to do likewise.
Our only hope is that Putin, though playing Hitler's game, might be wielding Mussolini's army. That is, as with Italy's invasion of Ethiopia in the 1930s, Putin's inevitable invasion of Ukraine may meet with surprising resistance that his army is not able to overcome.
Meanwhile, though, Putin's bullying has won him 80% approval ratings inside Russia, where a demoralized people long for the glory days when Russia's huge empire was the terror and envy of the world. Imperialism is alive and well in Russia, and the West is currently led by puppies who love to roll over and play dead, so there is no credible force to stand against the Russian Empire.
So the NPR report on World War I is valuable in its reminder of that terrible, world-changing war, and valuable again as an example of the kind of propaganda that leads nations to weaken themselves until they invite aggressors to attack their weak or weak-willed neighbors.
It's worth remembering that peace-loving Switzerland has remained free of invasion and occupation, not because it disarmed and forswore warfare, but because it armed and trained its citizens relentlessly, so that would-be invaders calculated what invading a land of well-defended mountain passes would cost them, and decided it wasn't worth the defeats that they would suffer.
History does not repeat itself, not exactly, and not even in broad strokes. But, as in economics, there are regularities that amount to laws of human behavior that shape history. Perceived weakness invites bullying or attack. Putin was happy to refrain from invading Ukraine as long as there was a pro-Russian government running it. But when the people ousted that government, Putin had to teach them to obey his will. His message: You are part of the Russian Empire, whether you like it or not.
And America, despite promises to protect Ukraine if they gave up their nuclear weapons (which they did), has neither the will nor the ability to keep those promises. Obama does not regard promises made by his predecessors as binding -- he doesn't even regard his own promises as binding.
Those who complained that America shouldn't be "policeman of the world" are now going to find out how much worse off the world is when there is no policeman -- just imperialist thug states like Russia, China, and Iran.
And, while our eyes are turned toward Russia, it would be wise for us to remember that while Russia's military might turn out to be more like Mussolini's than Hitler's, China's military is far more powerful.
The U.S. entered World War II, not because of Germany's conquest of Europe, but because of Japan's aggression in the Pacific. We may find ourselves involved in our next world war, not because of Russia, but because China knows now that Obama is not likely to show any spine at all if China reaches out to seize Taiwan.
Weakness, of military or of will, invites attack. Strength, and a demonstrated will to use that strength, usually forestalls it. Far more soldiers and civilians around the world will die because of Obama's "peace-loving" weakness than because of the demonstrated strength of both presidents Bush.
Meanwhile, let's keep ourselves awake to history. Our schools barely teach it anymore; we have to educate ourselves. NPR American Chronicles: World War I is an excellent place to start.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=W0w9IUPBs9Y
Marche de l'Empereur (with english subtitles) / Марш императоров
( Read more... )
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c36UNSoJenI
Honey badgers escape from their enclosure using anything from mud balls to rakes.
( Read more... )
First appeared in print in The The Rhino Times, Greensboro, NC
By Orson Scott Card May 1, 2014
Witnessing the Great War
...
http://www.ornery.org/essays/warwatch/2014-05-01-1.html
Naked aggression, if it is not resisted, will be repeated. Learning the wrong lesson from World War I, Britain tried to give in to Hitler's "legitimate" claims -- which are strangely identical to Putin's claim to be protecting Russian nationals in Ukraine and the Baltic states. But this did not avert war, it merely led Hitler to believe that he would easily win his war against a cowardly, unprepared West.
Which he did. He overwhelmed and occupied France, and left Britain to huddle on its island, incapable of mounting any serious offensive against German-held territory for four years.
Today, Putin is obviously playing from Hitler's playbook. Hitler got his agents to create faked-up "incidents" in which pro-German citizens of Austria and Czechoslovakia provoked their governments to act against them, thus allowing Hitler to claim that he needed to seize German-majority territories in order to "protect" German nationals.
Putin is doing exactly the same thing in Ukraine, and is prepared to play the tape again in Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia. And, like Hitler, Putin is facing a west led by stupid "peace-loving" leaders who think that by disarming themselves, they will somehow encourage imperialists like Putin to do likewise.
Our only hope is that Putin, though playing Hitler's game, might be wielding Mussolini's army. That is, as with Italy's invasion of Ethiopia in the 1930s, Putin's inevitable invasion of Ukraine may meet with surprising resistance that his army is not able to overcome.
Meanwhile, though, Putin's bullying has won him 80% approval ratings inside Russia, where a demoralized people long for the glory days when Russia's huge empire was the terror and envy of the world. Imperialism is alive and well in Russia, and the West is currently led by puppies who love to roll over and play dead, so there is no credible force to stand against the Russian Empire.
So the NPR report on World War I is valuable in its reminder of that terrible, world-changing war, and valuable again as an example of the kind of propaganda that leads nations to weaken themselves until they invite aggressors to attack their weak or weak-willed neighbors.
It's worth remembering that peace-loving Switzerland has remained free of invasion and occupation, not because it disarmed and forswore warfare, but because it armed and trained its citizens relentlessly, so that would-be invaders calculated what invading a land of well-defended mountain passes would cost them, and decided it wasn't worth the defeats that they would suffer.
History does not repeat itself, not exactly, and not even in broad strokes. But, as in economics, there are regularities that amount to laws of human behavior that shape history. Perceived weakness invites bullying or attack. Putin was happy to refrain from invading Ukraine as long as there was a pro-Russian government running it. But when the people ousted that government, Putin had to teach them to obey his will. His message: You are part of the Russian Empire, whether you like it or not.
And America, despite promises to protect Ukraine if they gave up their nuclear weapons (which they did), has neither the will nor the ability to keep those promises. Obama does not regard promises made by his predecessors as binding -- he doesn't even regard his own promises as binding.
Those who complained that America shouldn't be "policeman of the world" are now going to find out how much worse off the world is when there is no policeman -- just imperialist thug states like Russia, China, and Iran.
And, while our eyes are turned toward Russia, it would be wise for us to remember that while Russia's military might turn out to be more like Mussolini's than Hitler's, China's military is far more powerful.
The U.S. entered World War II, not because of Germany's conquest of Europe, but because of Japan's aggression in the Pacific. We may find ourselves involved in our next world war, not because of Russia, but because China knows now that Obama is not likely to show any spine at all if China reaches out to seize Taiwan.
Weakness, of military or of will, invites attack. Strength, and a demonstrated will to use that strength, usually forestalls it. Far more soldiers and civilians around the world will die because of Obama's "peace-loving" weakness than because of the demonstrated strength of both presidents Bush.
Meanwhile, let's keep ourselves awake to history. Our schools barely teach it anymore; we have to educate ourselves. NPR American Chronicles: World War I is an excellent place to start.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=W0w9IUPBs9Y
Marche de l'Empereur (with english subtitles) / Марш императоров
( Read more... )
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c36UNSoJenI
Honey badgers escape from their enclosure using anything from mud balls to rakes.
( Read more... )
